以交易为生（新版）

The New Trading for a Living

亚历山大·埃尔德 · Alexander Elder · 2014

投机反身性与宏观投机S1 · E05 · 第 5 集难度 ●●●○○303 页通读约 12 小时

一个精神科医生说，亏钱的人和酗酒的人行为一样，只是说话不结巴。A psychiatrist's verdict: losing traders behave exactly like alcoholics, except their speech isn't slurred.

本集角度 · 心态、方法、资金：3M 框架

📖 微信读书 · 打开书页本季全部 10 集

ABOUT这本书

埃尔德是精神科医生，1974 年从一条苏联货船上跳船逃到科特迪瓦，2 月落地肯尼迪机场时口袋里 25 美元。1993 年的初版卖遍全球，2014 年这本新版重写了指标和系统部分。全书六十章分三块：心理（他把亏钱的人和酗酒者放在一起写，有一章叫「输家匿名会」）、方法（三重滤网系统、五倍时间框架、MACD 和自创的强力指数）、资金（2% 规则管单笔风险，6% 规则管单月回撤，触线就停到下个月）。市面上把心态、方法、资金三样一起讲透的书不多，这是其中最厚的一本。

Elder is a psychiatrist who jumped a Soviet freighter in Abidjan in 1974 and landed at JFK that February with $25 in his pocket. The 1993 original sold worldwide; this 2014 rewrite redoes the indicator and systems chapters. Sixty chapters in three blocks: psychology (losing traders written up alongside alcoholics, with a chapter titled Losers Anonymous), method (the Triple Screen system, timeframes related by a factor of five, MACD and his own Force Index) and money (a 2% rule per trade and a 6% rule per month, hit it and you stop until next month). Few books cover mind, method and money together with this much care.

POINTS要点

亏钱的人和酗酒的人一个路数：换老师、换系统、亏了加倍，只是说话不结巴Losing traders follow the alcoholic's script: new guru, new system, double up after a loss, speech unslurred
指标可以做票，多放趋势指标投一边，多放震荡指标投另一边，你永远找得到想听的话Indicators can be gerrymandered: load up on trend tools and the vote goes one way, oscillators the other. You will always find one saying what you want
2% 规则管单笔：一笔最多亏账户的 2%；6% 规则管单月：亏到 6% 停到下个月The 2% rule caps any single trade at 2% of equity; the 6% rule stops you for the month once losses reach 6%
连赢五十笔也能亏光，胜率不救仓位，一次没设止损的大亏就够了Fifty winning trades in a row can still end in a wipeout. Win rate does not save you; one unstopped loss is enough

EXCERPTS原文摘句 · 5 条

滑点和佣金让交易像在一条满是食人鱼的河里游泳。

Slippage and commissions make trading similar to swimming in a piranha-infested river.

Ch.3 · 印刷页 p.8 · PDF p.24

全书反复用的比喻，先讲成本再讲方法

亏损对输家，就像酒对酗酒者。小亏是一杯，大亏是一场狂饮，连亏是一次酗酒发作。[…] 亏钱的交易员想法和做法都和酗酒者一样，只是说话不结巴。

Loss is to a loser what alcohol is to an alcoholic. A small loss is like a single drink. A big loss is like a bender. A series of losses is like an alcoholic binge. […] Losing traders think and act like alcoholics, except that their speech is not slurred.

Ch.9 · 印刷页 p.23 · PDF p.39

精神科医生才写得出的对照

有人想把趋势指标和震荡指标的信号平均一下，可这种投票很容易做票。[…] 一个交易员永远找得到一组指标，说他想听的话。

Some traders try to average out the signals of trend-following indicators and oscillators, but those votes are easy to rig. […] A trader can always find a group of indicators telling him what he wants to hear.

Ch.39 · 印刷页 p.155 · PDF p.171

三重滤网为什么存在，一句说清

市场可以用一次惨亏把账户直接掐灭，把人踢出局，像鲨鱼咬一口。市场也可以用一连串小咬杀人，每一口都不致命，加起来把账户啃到只剩骨头，像一群食人鱼。

Markets can snuff out an account with a single horrible loss that effectively takes a person out of the game, like a shark bite. Markets can also kill with a series of bites, none of them lethal but combined they strip an account to the bone, like a pack of piranhas.

Ch.49 · 印刷页 p.202 · PDF p.218

2% 防鲨鱼，6% 防食人鱼，两条规则的来由

我见过有人连赢 20 笔、30 笔，有一次甚至 50 笔，最后还是亏钱。连赢的时候很容易觉得自己看透了这游戏。然后一次惨亏抹掉全部利润，再撕进本金。

I've seen traders make 20, 30, and once even 50 profitable trades in a row, and still end up losing money. When you're on a winning streak, it's easy to feel you've figured out the game. Then a disastrous loss wipes out all profits and tears into your equity.

Ch.50 · 印刷页 p.203 · PDF p.219

连赢五十笔也能亏光，胜率救不了仓位

GODZILLA哥斯拉怎么读

从东京的利率台子上看

第五十一章的 6% 规则我们台子上有个更凶的版本，叫风控部，月内亏到线，系统权限当天就没了，散户没有风控部，得自己当。第九章「输家匿名会」写得最狠，我微博评论区每天都能看到他描述的那种人，上个月信 A 老师这个月换 B 老师，亏了加倍，赢了发截图。三重滤网对做利率的人也管用，过去两年 10Y 一路往 5% 走，多少人拿日线超买信号去做多债券，周线趋势一次都没转过。指标章过时了，MACD 和强力指数在 2026 年的盘口上噪音太多。2% 规则的例子是五万美元账户一笔只准亏一千，多数人第一反应是太小做不了事，台子上活下来的账户偏偏都是小的那批。

The 6% rule in chapter 51 has a meaner cousin on my desk: the risk department. Hit the monthly loss limit and system access is gone that afternoon. Retail traders have no risk department; they must be their own. Chapter 9, Losers Anonymous, is the sharpest thing in the book; my Weibo comments are full of the people he describes, guru A last month, guru B this month, doubling after a loss, screenshots after a win. Triple Screen works for rates too. For two years the 10-year climbed toward 5% while people bought bonds on daily overbought signals, and the weekly trend never turned. The indicator chapters have aged. His 2% example, $50,000 and $1,000 a trade, sounds too tiny to matter on first reading. Tiny is why accounts survive.

FOR适合谁

第一批书读完、开始自己下单、还没被大亏教育过的人。第一部心理和第九部资金管理先读，中间指标章按需翻。不适合零经验直接啃。

For people who have read the first few books, started trading and not yet been schooled by a big loss. Read Part One (mind) and Part Nine (money) first; the indicator chapters can wait. Too dense as a first book.