日本蜡烛图技术

Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques

史蒂夫·尼森 · Steve Nison · 1991

系统系统化·技术与量化S1 · E06 · 第 6 集难度 ●●○○○300 页通读约 8 小时

1749年大阪成交11万包「空米」，全日本的米才3万包，期货就这么开始了。In 1749 Osaka traded 110,000 bales of 'empty rice' when all Japan held 30,000. That is how futures began.

本集角度 · 图表是市场的语言，蜡烛图是它的字母表

📖 微信读书 · 打开书页本季全部 10 集

ABOUT这本书

1991 年出版，尼森当时是美林的技术分析师，从一位日本女同事嘴里第一次听到「窗口」，顺着找到日本技术分析协会的小册子，把日本人用了两百年的蜡烛图搬进了西方。第二章讲来历，1710 年大阪堂岛米会所开始交易米票，是世界第一个期货交易所，酒田的本间宗久在那里发了财；第三到八章逐个讲锤子线、吊颈线、吞没、乌云盖顶、启明星、十字星、三只乌鸦、窗口，五十多种形态配几百张图；第二部分讲怎么和趋势线、均线合着用。今天所有看 K 线的人，用的词都是他翻译的。

Published in 1991 by a Merrill Lynch technical analyst who first heard the word 'window' from a Japanese colleague, tracked down a booklet from the Nippon Technical Analysts Association and brought two centuries of Japanese charting to the West. Chapter 2 tells the origin: the Dojima Rice Exchange in Osaka began trading rice coupons in 1710, the world's first futures exchange, where Munehisa Homma of Sakata made his fortune. Chapters 3 to 8 walk through hammers, hanging men, engulfing lines, dark-cloud cover, stars, doji, three black crows and windows, fifty-odd patterns with hundreds of charts. Part Two combines candles with trendlines, moving averages and RSI. Everyone reading a candle chart today uses the vocabulary he translated.

POINTS要点

蜡烛图给信号不给目标位，形态要放在前面的走势和其他证据里看，单看一根没意义Candles give signals, not targets; a pattern means nothing outside the trend before it and the other evidence around it
每个形态背后都有一群被套的人，吊颈线第二天跳空得低，套住的人多，顶就像顶Every pattern is a crowd of trapped traders: the lower the gap after a hanging man, the more are trapped and the more it looks like a top
小实体是多空拔河僵持，长影线是被拒绝的方向，实体和影线一起读才是一根完整的蜡烛A small body is a stalemate, a long shadow is a rejected direction; read body and shadow together or you have not read the candle
1710 年大阪堂岛的米票是世界第一个期货合约，1749 年成交 11 万包空米，实物只有 3 万包Osaka's Dojima rice coupons of 1710 were the first futures contracts; in 1749, 110,000 bales of empty rice traded against 30,000 real

EXCERPTS原文摘句 · 5 条

蜡烛图给出很多有用的交易信号，但不给目标价位。[…] 蜡烛图形态永远要放在之前发生了什么、以及其他技术证据的关系里去看。

Candlestick charts provide many useful trading signals. They do not, however, provide price targets. […] Candlestick patterns should always be viewed in the context as to what occurred before and in relation to other technical evidence.

Introduction · 印刷页 p.8 · PDF p.22

作者自己先划清边界，给信号不给目标

想知道米期货当年多火：1749 年，大阪交易的「空米」米票总共 11 万包（米当时按包交易），而全日本的米只有 3 万包。

To give you an idea of the popularity of rice futures trading, consider this: In 1749, there were a total of 110,000 bales (rice used to trade in bales) of empty-rice coupons traded in Osaka. Yet, throughout all of Japan there were only 30,000 bales of rice

Ch.2 · 印刷页 p.15 · PDF p.29

三百年前的杠杆比，名义量是实物的三倍多

如果第二天开盘走低，在吊颈线那天开盘或收盘买入的人就被「吊」在了亏损的仓位上。所以吊颈线的一般原则是：吊颈线实体和第二天开盘之间的向下跳空越大，它越像一个顶。

If the market opens lower the next day, those who bought on the open or close of the hanging-man day are now left "hanging" with a losing position. Thus, the general principle for the hanging man; the greater the down gap between the real body of the hanging-man day and the opening the next day the more likely the hanging man will be a top.

Ch.4 · 印刷页 p.30 · PDF p.44

形态背后是被套的人，他每个形态都这么讲

星线，尤其是十字星，是前一段趋势可能结束的警告。星线的小实体代表多空拔河陷入了僵持。

The star, especially the doji star, is a warning that the prior trend may be ending. The star's small real body represents a stalemate in the tug of war between the bulls and bears.

Ch.5 · 印刷页 p.55 · PDF p.69

小实体的含义，一句就够

在前近代的日本，数字三近乎神秘。有句话叫「三度目の正直」。顺带一提，三被视为吉数，四则不祥，原因很好找：日语里四和死同音。

In pre-modern Japan, the number three had an almost mystical associations. There is a saying "three times lucky" that expresses this belief. Parenthetically, while the number three is regarded as lucky, the number four is viewed as a foreboding figure. The reason for this belief is easy to ascertain-in Japanese the pronunciation for the number four and the word death are the same.

Ch.6 · 印刷页 p.112 · PDF p.126

三只乌鸦、三白兵为什么都是三，在东京住过就懂

GODZILLA哥斯拉怎么读

从东京的利率台子上看

在东京做利率的人读它有个便宜，我们天天说的ローソク足就是它，JGB 期货至今在大阪交易所挂牌，堂岛米会所的直系后代，1710 年的米票和台子上今天对冲用的国债期货是一回事。对台子上的人最有用的是第一章那句，蜡烛图给信号不给目标位。他反复强调等收盘确认，做 flow 的人等不了，所以台子上多半只在周线上用它。过去两年美债 10Y 往 5% 走，日线上教科书级的吊颈线出了好几回，每回都有人喊顶，周线一次都没确认。过时的是他 1991 年拿的全是日线图，今天有算法专门在收盘前做形态。大阪人至今打招呼说「儲かりまっか」，赚到了吗，做这行的人听着想笑。

Reading this in Tokyo comes with a discount: the rosoku-ashi we say daily on the desk is this book, and JGB futures still trade on the Osaka Exchange, Dojima's direct descendant; 1710's rice coupons and the bond futures a rates desk hedges with are one instrument. The most useful line for a desk is in chapter one: candles give signals, not price targets. He insists on waiting for the close, and flow traders cannot, so desks use candles mostly on the weekly. As the 10-year climbed toward 5%, the daily printed textbook hanging men several times, each greeted with a top call; the weekly never confirmed. His 1991 charts are all dailies; today algorithms paint patterns in the last ten minutes. Osaka still greets you with mokarimakka: making money?

FOR适合谁

刚开始看图、K 线术语一个都不认识的人，这是第一本，读完再读均线和趋势。已经会看图的人只需要第一、二章和第二部分的合用法。

The first book for anyone starting to read charts who knows none of the candle vocabulary; moving averages and trend books come after. Experienced chart readers need only chapters 1 and 2 and Part Two on combining tools.