股票作手回忆录

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

埃德温·勒菲弗 · Edwin Lefèvre · 1923

投机反身性与宏观投机S1 · E01 · 第 1 集难度 ●●○○○300 页通读约 7 小时P1

一百年了，对赌行换成了手机 App，坐不住的人还是坐不住。A century on, the bucket shop became an app on your phone. The people who couldn't sit still still can't.

本集角度 · 一切的起点：百年前的作手，说尽了今天的行情

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ABOUT这本书

1923 年出版，记者勒菲弗把杰西·利弗莫尔的口述写成第一人称小说，主角化名拉里·利文斯顿。十四岁在波士顿对赌行靠记数字起家，二十出头到纽约不到两年破产三次，1907 年恐慌里做空一天赚进一百万美元，第二年听了棉花大王珀西·托马斯的话，四十四万包棉花亏掉几乎全部家当。全书没有一张图表，只有他怎么赚、怎么亏、怎么又赚回来。放在书架第一本，因为后面所有讲趋势、仓位、止损的书，原型都在这里。

Published in 1923, this is journalist Edwin Lefèvre's first-person novel built from Jesse Livermore's own account, with the hero renamed Larry Livingston. He starts at fourteen memorising numbers in a Boston bucket shop, goes broke three times in under two years after reaching New York, clears a million dollars in a single day shorting the Panic of 1907, then loses nearly everything the next year on 440,000 bales of cotton after listening to Percy Thomas. There is not one chart in the book, only how he made it, lost it and made it back. It sits first on this shelf because every later book on trend, sizing and stops is a footnote to it.

POINTS要点

看对不难，看对之后坐得住才赚钱，两样都有的人少见Being right is easy; sitting tight after being right is where the money is, and few can do both
亏钱的仓位不摊平，卖掉亏的，留下赚的，他用棉花亏了几百万才写下这句Never average a loser: sell what shows a loss, keep what shows a profit, a lesson that cost him millions in cotton
该怕的时候人在盼，该盼的时候人在怕，成功的交易员得把这两样反着用People hope when they should fear and fear when they should hope; the trader has to run both instincts in reverse
华尔街没有新鲜事，今天盘面上发生的，一百年前发生过，一百年后还会There is nothing new on Wall Street: whatever the tape does today, it did a century ago and will do again

EXCERPTS原文摘句 · 5 条

我很早就学到另一课：华尔街没有新鲜事。不可能有，因为投机和山一样古老。今天股市里发生的一切，以前发生过，以后还会发生。

Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market to-day has happened before and will happen again.

Ch.I · 印刷页 p.2 · PDF p.9

全书总纲，也是这一季书架的总纲

让我赚到大钱的从来不是我的思考，一直是我的坐功。听懂了吗？坐得住！看对市场一点都不难。[…] 既能看对又坐得住的人，少见。

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. […] Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.

Ch.V · 印刷页 p.54 · PDF p.61

老火鸡那一章的落点，被引用最多的一段

投机者的主要敌人总是从内部钻出来的。希望和恐惧是人性里拆不掉的东西。[…] 该希望时他必须恐惧，该恐惧时他必须希望。他要怕亏损变成更大的亏损，要盼利润长成更大的利润。

The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. […] Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

Ch.X · 印刷页 p.108 · PDF p.115

把止损和持盈两条纪律压成一句

投机的蠢事里，没有几件比给亏钱的仓位摊平更蠢。我的棉花交易很快就把这话证明到了底。永远卖掉让你亏的，留下让你赚的。

Of all speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game. My cotton deal proved it to the hilt a little later. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

Ch.XII · 印刷页 p.130 · PDF p.137

他自己用四十四万包棉花交的学费

你猜我为什么买？为了不让价格跌下去！这要不算超级韭菜的玩法，什么才算？

And why do you think I bought it? To keep the price from going down! If that isn't a supersucker play, what is?

Ch.XII · 印刷页 p.130 · PDF p.137

自嘲得最狠的一句，台子上人人干过

GODZILLA哥斯拉怎么读

从东京的利率台子上看

做利率的人读第十二章最扎心，他买棉花是为了「不让价格跌下去」，四十四万包，摊平亏钱仓位这件事，台子上每年都有人重演一遍，规模小得多，蠢法一样。对台子上的人最有用的是第五章老火鸡那段，「这是牛市」四个字顶一屋子研究员。过时的地方也有，他那套试单再加仓的手法放到今天的算法盘口会被抢跑得一塌糊涂。今年秋天 10Y 在 5% 附近晃、油价 100 以上，群里天天有人问顶在哪，最好的回答还是他那句，数数眼前多少人在猜顶。他 1940 年在酒店衣帽间开枪自杀，书里教的是赚钱，没教怎么活。

Chapter twelve stings most for rates people: he buys cotton 'to keep the price from going down', 440,000 bales of it. Averaging into a losing position gets re-enacted on some desk every year, far smaller, same stupidity. For desk people the best pages are Old Turkey in chapter five: 'it's a bull market' is worth a floor of analysts. His probe-then-pyramid method would get front-run to pieces in today's order book. With the 10-year near 5% and oil above 100, people keep asking where the top is. The best answer is still his: count how many are calling it. He shot himself in a hotel cloakroom in 1940. The book teaches money, not living.

FOR适合谁

做过至少一年真钱交易再读，亏过才读得出味。零经验的人会当成传奇故事翻完，等你第一次摊平亏损后回来重读。

Read after at least a year of trading real money; the losses are what make it land. Beginners will skim it as an adventure story. Come back after your first averaged-down loser.