客户的游艇在哪里？

Where Are the Customers' Yachts?

小弗雷德·施韦德 · Fred Schwed Jr. · 1940

危机金融史与大危机S1 · E10 · 第 10 集难度 ●○○○○224 页通读约 4 小时P12

1940年被逐出普林斯顿的经纪人写的笑话集，86年后2/20和KOL还在照演。A 1940 joke book by a broker expelled from Princeton; 86 years on, 2-and-20 funds and crypto influencers still follow its script.

本集角度 · 收官祛魅：华尔街唯一没变的是手续费

📖 微信读书 · 打开书页本季全部 10 集

ABOUT这本书

施韦德的父亲1920年代在华尔街做空破产，他自己在大四被普林斯顿开除，理由是晚上六点后在宿舍招待女士，之后做了经纪人，经历了1929年崩盘和整个大萧条，1940年写下这本书。书名来自一个老段子：游客在港口看游艇，有人介绍这是银行家的、那是经纪人的，游客问客户的游艇在哪里，答案是没有。全书的主张只有一条：市场没法预测，金融业卖给客户的是预测的幻觉，收的是真实的佣金。迈克尔·刘易斯给1995年版写序，说读它像作者的鬼魂端着杯金汤力陪你翻页。藏书阁这本是2010年Leo Gough的52条解读版，每条以一段施韦德原文开头。

Schwed's father went broke short-selling in the 1920s; Schwed was thrown out of Princeton in his final year for entertaining a lady in his room after 6pm, became a broker, lived through 1929 and the Depression, and wrote this in 1940. The title is an old joke: a tourist is shown the bankers' yachts and the brokers' yachts and asks where the customers' are. There aren't any. One point, many voices: markets cannot be forecast, and the industry sells that illusion for real commissions. Michael Lewis's 1995 foreword says it feels like the author's ghost is beside you with a gin and tonic. Our copy is Leo Gough's 2010 edition, 52 short ideas each opening with a Schwed passage.

POINTS要点

金融业最稳的收入是佣金和管理费，跟替你赚到钱没有必然关系。The industry's steadiest income is fees and commissions, whatever happens to your money.
为了多一点收益换成高风险资产，1940年叫Paula上学，今天叫reach for yield。Swapping safe bonds for risky ones to earn a bit more: in 1940 it was Paula's school fees, today it is reach for yield.
预测做得越多，生意越好，预测准不准是另一回事。More predictions mean more business. Whether they come true is a separate matter.
清醒时人人知道泡沫是坏事，人人心里盼着再来一次。Sober, everyone knows booms are bad. Everyone secretly wants another one.

EXCERPTS原文摘句 · 5 条

投机，是一种大概不会成功的努力，想把一点钱变成很多钱。投资，是一种应该成功的努力，防止很多钱变成一点。

Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. […] Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.

Idea 2 & 4（Gough 版）· PDF p.12, p.16

投资与投机最短的一对定义，比格雷厄姆的好记

假设一家人有10万美元买了保守的债券，一年收3000……也许有一天这家人觉得抬不起头了……除非小Paula去上一所时髦的寄宿学校。为此得把收益提到5500……他们的投资顾问……转眼就能安排出更高的收益……他只要把保守债券卖掉，换成风险更高的证券。

Suppose that a family has $100,000 invested in conservative bonds, yielding $3,000 a year: … perhaps the time comes when the family feels they can no longer hold their heads up … unless little Paula goes to a fashionable finishing school. For that it will be necessary to jack up their income yield to $5,500 … Their investment man … can arrange the larger yield in a jiffy … He simply sells out the conservative bonds and substitutes riskier securities.

Idea 1（Gough 版）· PDF p.10

reach for yield 的1940年版，做利率的人看着眼熟

清醒的时候我们都知道，泡沫是坏事。但几乎每个人心里都偷偷盼着再来一次。

In our moment of sober thought we all realize that booms are bad things, not good. But nearly all of us have a secret hankering for another one.

Idea 5（Gough 版）· PDF p.18

2026年AI资本开支这一轮，谁没这么想过

你做的金融预测越多，生意就越多，佣金也越多。

The more financial predictions you make the more business you do and the more commissions you get.

Idea 43（Gough 版）· PDF p.94

这句骂的是整个卖方，也包括写日报的我

和人生所有丰盛的情感体验一样，亏掉一笔要紧的钱是什么滋味，文字传达不了。

Like all of life's rich emotional experiences, the full flavour of losing important money cannot be conveyed in literature.

Idea 50（Gough 版）· PDF p.108

读书替代不了亏钱，作者自己承认

GODZILLA哥斯拉怎么读

从东京的利率台子上看

游艇这个问题问台子上的人最合适，卖方就在游艇那一边，客户是别的银行和机构，赚的是点差和funding的价差，客户赚不赚跟台子的年终关系不大，施韦德1940年写的行业，做利率的人今天还在里面上班。第一条Paula上寄宿学校那段，10万美元买保守债券一年3000，为了多2500的收益换成高风险债，这就是reach for yield，东京八年负利率，日本大妈买土耳其里拉债和每月分配型基金，剧本没改。今年反过来，美债10Y到5%，油价100以上，收益不用伸手就有，这时候读反而更清醒，下一轮伸手的人已经在排队。第43条「预测做得越多，生意越多，佣金越多」，我微博上14万粉丝等的就是我每天的预测，这句骂的也是我。过时的是SEC那几条，佣金今天换成了管理费和流量。

Ask a sell-side desk about the yachts; it sits on the yacht side. Clients are other banks, the desk earns the spread and the funding basis, and client profit has little to do with its bonus. Schwed described this industry in 1940; rates traders still work in it. Idea 1, Paula's school fees, $100,000 in safe bonds yielding $3,000 swapped into riskier paper for $2,500 more, is reach for yield; eight years of negative rates in Tokyo pushed retirees into Turkish lira bonds and monthly-payout funds. This year, US 10-year at 5%, oil above $100, yield without stretching, and the next queue of stretchers is forming. Idea 43, more predictions, more business, more commissions: my 140,000 Weibo followers wait for mine daily. That line is about me.

FOR适合谁

刚开始接触理财产品、被销售围着的人，先读这本再签字。行内人当镜子读，四小时读完会不太舒服。想学具体方法的人这里没有，它只负责祛魅。

For anyone new to financial products with a salesperson hovering: read this before signing. Industry people should read it as a mirror; four hours, mildly uncomfortable. No methods here, only demystification.